Daily Market Commentary 10th March 2023

The markets were quiet ahead of this months all-important Non-Farm Payroll number, set to be released tonight. January’s blowout number set the markets on fire, with Bond yields exploding and equities collapsing. This month the magic number is expected to be around 225,000 jobs added. The ADP number was a healthy 242,000 jobs added in the private sector , while the JOLT’s report was strong. Overnight the Challenger Jobs Reports showed 77,770 job cuts, while Weekly Jobless Claims were higher, hinting at a soft Non-Farm Payroll number? A miss to the downside, will be seen as a positive, while a strong report will cause further market mayhem. Bond yields will rise, along with the US Dollar, while equities will tank. In the lead up to the release, markets are moving sideways, with the EUR moving back to 1.0570, while the GBP regains 1.1900.

Commodity currencies settled with the softer reserve, as the AUD looks to regain 0.6600, while the NZD pushes back above 0.6100. Chinese inflation numbers were negative, along with the PPI numbers, perhaps due to the extended lockdowns flowing through. The Bank of China appears to be on top of the inflation crises, and the Bank of Canada also appears to consider the problem contained, but ‘one swallow does not a summer make’. All eyes now turn to the Bank of Japan , which is expected to hold interest rates, before switching to the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data.