Daily Market Commentary 15th May 2023

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Negative sentiment closed out the week of trade on global markets, with equities tumbling and the US Dollar on the rise. Equity markets are being buffeted by the regional banking crises in the US, which is destroying confidence and sentiment. Inflation remains at stubbornly high levels in Europe and US Core Inflation does not appear to be easing. Food inflation pressures are coming into focus as the energy crises has a hiatus. Food inflation is a direct result of higher energy/fertilizer prices, and supply. The Western sanctions are seriously impacting the imposers of the sanctions, rather than the recipients. Meanwhile the European ‘green agenda’ has been the catalyst for the energy crises, setting the environment to thrive, while the green agenda now seeks to close down productive farming and killing food supply. The rising US Dollar pushed the EUR back to 1.0850, while the GBP crashed to 1.2450, following the release of a benign GDP number. It is amazing that all over Europe, the measure of a technical recession is ‘two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth’ and magically most of these countries appear to achieve 0.1%, nearly every quarter. There is no such thing as ‘coincidence’. The data is about as reliable as global employment data.

Commodity currencies suffered further pain as the reserve pushes north. The high-flying NZD has crashed back below 0.6200, while the AUD tumbles toward 0.6600. Commodity prices are under demand pressure as recession pressures rise. The coming week will continue to focus on growth and inflation, thus interest rates. The Banking Crises will be the elephant in the room.

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