Daily Market Commentary 17th May 2021

US markets rallied, to close out a volatile week, dominated by the blowout US CPI/Inflation number. Equities fought to regain the losses suffered early in the week, triggered by fears of rising interest rates, following the release of the 4.2% CPI number, in the USA. This number is serious and market analysts recognise the size of the problem and the fact that the components of the inflation data, is way underestimated. Retail Sales in the US crashed to zero, following last months surge, of 9.8%. The University of Michigan Economic Sentiment number crashed, which is a refection of rising fear in the economy. Important indicators in the US economy are turning bad, really quickly.

The EUR jumped to 1.2140, while the GBP recovered to 1.4100, as pressure came off the US Dollar. US Bond Yields drifted off the spike, early in the week, but this canary is well and truly in song. Commodity prices remain bid and the softer reserve allowed the associated currencies to regain further lost ground. The AUD pushed back to 0.7780, while the NZD traded up to 0.7240, despite weaker Business PMI data.

The coming week will be dominated by CPI/PPI data releases, to gauge the inflationary pressures across the global economy.  Global PMI data will indicate the extent of a return to growth, as economies re-open. Growing skepticism over the effectiveness and dangers of the ‘vaccines’, are on the rise and may inhibit ‘the big plan’.