Daily Market Commentary 29th July 2024

Equity markets rebounded strongly Friday, to close out a tumultuous week on US and European equity markets. The rebound saw a surge in the Dow of more than 650 points, which was a sign the markets oversold earlier in the week. The only major economic news was the latest rendition of the PCE inflation indicator. This number was in line with expectations, neither a shock, in either direction. The economic situation remains the same, with stronger than expected US GDP growth data the only surprise, which contradicts the malign situation that prevails in Europe and the USA. The important University of Michigan Economic Sentiment reports was also weaker than expected. The Dollar remains bid, with the EUR trading below 1.0850, while the GBP holds below 1.2900.

Commodity currencies continue to reflect weaker commodity prices and the stronger reserve. The NZD has crashed to below 0.5900, while the AUD traded down to 0.6550. This coming week is a huge week for economic data releases, with a plethora of growth and inflation data from Europe, while the US will focus on the labour market, culminating in next Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll number. Key interest rate decisions from the Fed and the Bank of England will also be the focus of attention for markets. The Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged, until September, but the Bank of England may begin post-election rate cuts.