Daily Market Commentary 5th July 2021

Non Farm Payrolls beat expectations and triggered a further surge in equity markets. US Share Markets traded around historical highs after the employment numbers were released. The headline Unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 5.9%, but was largely ignored by markets, who reacted to the jobs added. The digestion of these numbers will raise questions, both in terms of the Fed’s reaction and the reality of the economy. Inflation is now the most important economic indicator.

The labour market number was a negative for the US Dollar, allowing the EUR to rebound to 1.1865, while the GBP stumbles to 1.3830. Commodity currencies gladly accepted the softer reserve, with the NZD pushing back above 0.7000 and the AUD breaking strongly though 0.7500. US Bond Yields remain remarkedly lethargic, but inflation scares will change all of that. EU PPI rose by an annualised 9.6%, which will translate directly into consumer prices, despite the lack of economic growth.

Watch inflation CPI/PPI numbers closely and the re-emergence of the term, ‘stagflation’.