DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY 5TH JUNE 2020

The ECB left rates unchanged but added a further $600 Billion in monetary stimulus. This, combined with an extended German fiscal stimulus, added to the mix and supported confidence in an economic recovery. The much vaunted EUR $750 Billion EU bailout/support package remains in the pipeline, but there is rebellion in the air. Finland object to this massive support package and the concept of ‘shared debt’. At least there is one EU member that can see that the concept has the potential of mutual and communal suicide? The EUR charged on to trade 1.1335, while the GBP topped 1.2600, reflecting market confidence and lack of demand, for the safe-haven US Dollar.

The commodity currencies have been on a massive bull-run, despite all of the sharks circling, with the re-open promising much. Australian Retail Sales contracted 17.7% and trade also reflected the lack of economic activity. Australian exports contracted 11%, while Imports fell 10%, but expectations remain high. There are considerable risks out there to these trade exposed currencies, headlined by the ‘Chinese situation’, but the virus appears to remain well under control. The AUD surged above 0.6900, while the NZD tested 0.6450, but these currencies were well overbought and remain extremely vulnerable at these levels.