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Daily Market Commentary 6th November 2023

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Non-Farm Payrolls missed expectations, coming in at 150,000 jobs added for the month, lower than the expected 180,000. This is exactly what the Fed has been looking for, as the final piece of the piece of the inflation puzzle. The labour market has remained robust, adding to inflationary pressures, but it now seems to be turning the corner. The Fed has left rates unchanged and hinted at ‘peak inflation’ and ‘peak interest rates’. Bond yields continue to tumble fast, as does the US Dollar, with the EUR rising to 1.0730, while the GBP approaches 1.2400! Geo-Political crises appear to be settling down, as confidence floods back to markets. The softer reserve allowed the commodity currencies to regain further lost ground, with the AUD breaking 0.6500, while the NZD looks to regain the ‘BIG’ figure of 0.6000! This was despite weaker than expected economic data, with Australian PMI numbers in serious contraction mode. The coming week will be dominated by inflation, growth and Geo-Political developments. On local markets, Australia will await the Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting, to decide on interest rates. It is expected that the Melbourne Cup may camouflage a rate rise, from the dovish RBA Governor. NZ will look at the hope of a new Government forming, the make-up and policies, while China will announce CPI/PPI numbers.

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