Daily Market Commentary 8th July 2021

The European Commission reviewed forecast growth numbers significantly higher overnight, with 2021 up to 4.8%, while 2022 was pushed to 4.5%! These are aggressive and ambitious forecasts and include brave economic assumptions. The European equity markets leapt upon them and rallied strongly. The US markets were far more reticent, will only marginal gains, at or around record highs. US Bond Yields crashed, with the 10 year falling to just above 1.3%, confirming the monetary policy prospects. Markets keenly await what is expected to be a dovish FOMC minutes release, which will confirm QE infinity and hold rates and record historical lows. The EUR drifted to 1.1810, while the GBP slipped to 1.3800, following some weak housing data.

US Markets were relatively calm, with tempered enthusiasm, as vehicle sales fell and mortgage applications turned negative. US markets await the FOMC minutes and bond markets are telling a bleak story. The commodity currencies have consolidated, with the NZD building above 0.7000, while the AUD cannot seem to hold above 0.7500.