Weekly Market Commentary 14th December 2020

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Markets had a mixed week, weighed upon by the surge in virus cases across Europe and the USA. This has lead to further Government lock-downs and hit economic activity very, very hard indeed. The bright side of the equation, is that the vaccine has begun to rollout in the UK and will be coming to a country near you soon. Governments are shutting down societies and economies, to combat the spread of the virus, despite failure of this prescription last time around. The economic impact will be devastating and fiscal and monetary bailouts are not keeping up. Consideration of deficit and debt has become inconsequential and deferred.

The coming week has an avalanche of economic data releases, which will begin to reflect the lock-downs and Central Bank views and actions. The 2020 year will be a complete economic wipe-out and perhaps the vaccine will allow a return to some semblance of normalcy in 2021? The Post-Brexit Trade deal is still under negotiation, as the EU hold a summit, which may consider options. The main topic being discussed is the unmeasurable and academic, ideology of climate change! The lack of focus on a trade deal between the UK and Europe has seen a massive hit to the GBP, which has plunged to 1.3215. The EUR has managed a rally to 1.2115, which is more a function of a decline in the US Dollar than any inherent strength, but further emphasizes the fall in the Pound.

Commodity currencies have been massive beneficiaries of the flagging reserve, which has further highlighted commodity prices. Asset bubbles are expanding at a great pace and will be a major concern into the future. Iron Ore prices surged through USD$150/ton, thus negating the growing Chinese trade war on Australia. The currencies have responded, with the AUD surging to 07550, while the NZD approaches 0.7100. Expect plenty of market volatility, with an action packed week on the markets, with a plethora of economic data and Central Bank activity.

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